Cohen Research Report Bullish on Pacific Asia China Energy

01 August 2010

A recent report published by the Cohen Independent Research Group, called Wall Street’s #1 Independent Research Firm, rated Pacific Asia China Energy (TSX: PCE: Other OTC: PCEEF) a Buy. The 68-page research report set three wide-ranging valuation levels as price targets for PCE shares for the company’s coalbed methane concessions in China. Considerations such as the wide range of the Guizhou’s abundant gas reserves, expected prices of natural gas during the research firm’s forecast period, and discounting factors, such as the stock price’s high volatility, were included in their price targets.

PCE shares, which closed at C$1.16/share on nearly 131,000 shares trading hands on June 19th, were given long-term fair market pricing of C$1.96/share by Cohen Research. This pricing was under the most pessimistic scenario. The low-case scenario included a natural gas price as low as $275 per 1000 cubic meters, and included a discount rate of 25 percent on the stock price. Cohen also reported, in the report, that at the current market price, PCE is “grossly undervalued.”

Cohen Research wrote, “As per our Base Case scenario estimates, the NAV of PACE’s resources falls in the range of C$5.31 – 7.83 per share (with a discounting factor of 20 percent).” Under the most optimistic pricing, assuming natural gas at $375 per 1000 cubic meters, Cohen targeted PCE shares at C$11.56/share. Cohen Research used the Net Asset Value (NAV) based method, which is one of the most accepted methods to value mining companies.

PACE, the acronym for Pacific Asia China Energy and not the stock’s ticker symbol (which is PCE, trading on the Toronto Venture Exchange, or TSX), is fortunate that one of its concessions is in the Guizhou province of China. Estimates describe this Chinese province as hosting more than 20 percent of China’s coalbed methane (CBM) reserves. The country’s total CBM reserves have been independently estimated to exceed 31 trillion cubic feet.

PACE was the first Canadian publicly traded company to participate in China’s granting of CBM concessions. PACE is participating in the Baotian-Qingshan CBM project through its wholly owned subsidiary Asia Canada Energy (ACE). China’s state-owned CBM company, China United Coalbed Methane (CUCBM), granted the 970-square kilometer CBM concession in September 2005 to ACE. The Baotian-Qingshan concession is located in the CBM-rich Guizhou province.
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China’s Energy Plan to Reduce Its Dependence upon Coal

26 July 2010

According to a U.S. Congressional – Executive Commission on China, which held a series of Issues Roundtables in late 2004, it was estimated that 12 Chinese mine workers die for every million tons of coal produced. Most are killed by methane gas explosions while inside the coal mines. China Business Weekly reported in July 2000, “To prevent gas explosions, China emits 6 billion cubic meters of methane from mines annually, seriously polluting the environment…” Last year, instruments on the world’s largest environment-monitoring satellite, the European Space Agency’s Envisat, revealed the world’s largest amount of nitrogen dioxide was hanging over Beijing and northeastern China. Because the country emits more methane from its coal mining than any other coal producing country, China pollutes the earth’s atmosphere with about one-third of the total annual emissions of methane. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, methane traps heat twenty times more than carbon dioxide, which impacts global warming.

On March 6th, People’s Daily reported, “Shanxi, China’s largest coal-producing province, plans to put the brakes on the further expansion of coal mining in the next five years.” Shanxi Governor Yu Youjun at a recent press conference announced, “We can not continue the rough way of development any more and must limit coal production strictly with the guidance of scientific concept of development.” While only slightly reducing the country’s aggressive GDP growth, China has instituted reforms to maximize its energy efficiency and minimize the environmental damage and loss of human life. Not only is the country stamping down on the causes of these problems, it wants western technology to help become more efficient.

Since September 2005, Shanxi shut down nearly 5,000 illegal mines and fined or imprisoned more than 1,200 operators, including 60 local officials. Coal produced about 70 percent of China’s energy supply in 2005. The Chinese government worries China’s dependence upon coal could rise above 80 percent over the next five years. The country is second only to the U.S. as a net importer of petroleum. Nontraditional sources are being encouraged to clean up the environment and reduce China’s dependence upon foreign oil. StockInterview.com has widely discussed China’s scramble for uranium as the country has embarked upon the most aggressive nuclear power program since the United States in the 1970s. Along with nuclear energy, China hopes to exponentially expand its natural gas program as a means of lowering its astronomical levels of air pollution.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told the National People’s Congress earlier this month that the country’s growth rate would be reduced to 7.5 percent over the country’s next five year plan. Economic growth reached nearly 10 percent in 2005. The strain imposed on China’s natural resources and labor has been taking its toll. According to the next five-year plan, China’s government policy will concentrate on building a resource-efficient and environment-friendly society. Their idea is to sustain the high output while reducing waste.

That may not be so simple. On February 20th, China Daily reported, “The bulk of China’s gas-fired power plants are on the verge of closure due to a shortage of natural gas.” Wang Yonggan, secretary general of China Electricity Council, said nearly 40 percent of China’s power plant capacity remained unused because of the lack of gas supplies. Wang warned a plan drafted the National Development and Reform Commission to increase China’s gas power capacity to 30 gigawatts by 2010 (up from 10.7 now) would make “such targets impossible to reach,” because of the gas shortfalls.

China’s Ambitious Coal Bed Methane Gas Development

One of the more serious reforms being addressed is the energy crisis within the context of the environmental stigma now attached to China. Coal is a problem because, as toxic as it is known to be, it helps fuel China’s growth, literally. But the dark rock has its bright side. Following the examples of the U.S. coal industry, predominantly in New Mexico’s San Juan Basin, Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, and Alabama’s Black Warrior Basin, and the more recent rise of Alberta’s Horseshoe Canyon, China has aggressively moved into the development of its coal bed methane gas industry. The degasification of coal can not only increase mining safety, but it can be an economic method of natural gas production.

In a 2005 report issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, coal bed methane is being taken very seriously as an alternative energy source with strong growth potential in the U.S. energy mix,
“Geologists call it continuous gas, but it is also called unconventional gas or even weird gas. Whatever you choose to call it, you must give it due respect for its growing importance. The Department of Energy reports the share of unconventional gas doubled from 17 percent of Lower 48 natural gas supplies in 1990 to 35 percent in 2003. By 2025 it is projected to be 44 percent— matching the role of conventional gas—with the remaining 12 percent of domestic supplies imported.”

By 2010, China hopes to increase its dependence upon cleaner burning fuels, such as nuclear and natural gas. However, the greatest immediate growth, for instance over the next five years, is likely to come from natural gas. Recent statistics show natural gas to be about 3 percent of China’s energy mix. Numerous announcements over the past two years have been made that the country wants gas in its energy mix to reach 8 percent or more. For those who have traveled to China, it is no secret the country is in dire need of cleaner burning fuels.

Official statistics show that China uses 2.45 tons of water to produce a ton of coal. Coal bed methane, a byproduct, is often wasted. In 1996, China established China United Coalbed Methane (CUCBM) to harness that byproduct and to help reduce the toxic pollution and alarming fatalities, generated by coal mining. CUCBM is a sole professional company with the exclusive right to explore and develop coalbed methane resources in joint ventures with foreign companies. It is controlled jointly by PetroChina Energy Company and the China Coal Energy Group Corporation.

CUCBM has been actively developing China’s coal bed methane industry by drawing upon the expertise, technology and capital of its foreign partners. “More high level technologies need to be deployed to ensure reliable power supplies,” Ma Songde, China’s vice minister of science and technology told Associated Press in late February. “By developing these technologies, we can resolve issues restricting growth and enhance growth.” China is actively seeking foreign investment and cooperation in power generation, particularly in clean energy.

As a light hydrocarbon, coal bed methane is among the cleanest sources of energy. Published reports show that China’s coal bed methane (CBM) resources, buried within a recoverable depth of 2000 meters, are estimated at approximately 36.81 trillion cubic meters. China has the world’s third largest CBM resource. Following behind the United States, it is the second country to have conducted large-scale field exploration of coal bed methane.

According to a March 9th article in People’s Daily, “China’s coal bed methane industry made important headway in 2005.” About 340 CBM wells were drilled across the country. That may not sound astonishing compared to the number of wells drilled in Canada, during the same year, which surpassed the 3,000 level for the first time. In that context, China remains nearly a virgin territory for CBM. CUCBM has been actively partnering with the world’s giant oil companies and others to explore their vast CMB reserves. In 1998, Texaco (now Chevron-Texaco) was the first to partner with CUCBM and resulted in geological studies, exploratory wells and development contracts.

Since then, CUCBM has been extremely selective in choosing its joint venture partners to develop the ultra-valuable Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs). After attracting oil majors such as Texaco and Conoco-Phillips, only a total of 26 Production Sharing Contracts have been awarded to foreign-owned companies. Total coverage of those contracts now extends about 34,000 square kilometers of China’s below surface coal basins. Foreign companies have investment more than $150 million in the contracted blocks. CUCBM hopes to ramp up coal bed methane output by 2010 to help meet the national gas growth target of 10 billion cubic meters.

Pacific Asia Energy Corporation’s CBM Contracts in China

The first Canadian publicly traded company awarded a Production Sharing Contract was Pacific Asia China Energy Inc (PACE), which holds the PSC through its wholly owned subsidiary, Asia Canada Energy Corp. Pacific Asia China Energy, which trades on Toronto’s Venture Exchange under the ticker symbol of PCE, also holds a second PSC through another wholly owned subsidiary China Canada Energy Corporation. It was the former which interested us, the company’s Guizhou Project in southern China.

In talking with Dr. David Marchioni, one of Canada’s leading CBM geologists, he said of CUCBM, “The Chinese government doesn’t want to hand out resources to people who don’t do anything with them. They want them developed. They want to have gas. They want to have energy.” Dr. Marchioni helped co-author “An Assessment of Coalbed Methane Exploration Projects in Canada,” published by the Geological Survey of Canada. He is also president of Petro-Logic Services in Calgary, whose clients have included the Canadian divisions of Apache, BP, BHP, Burlington, Devon, El Paso Energy, and Phillips Petroleum, among others. He is also a director of Pacific Asia China Energy and is overseeing the company’s CBM exploration program in China.

But what is the strategy here? If Alberta is now turning the corner and putting itself on the map as a serious CBM contender, why would one of Canada’s top CBM geologists get excited and pursue a property in southern China. “We got access to a huge resource for little money,” said Dr. Marchioni. “Instead of paying hundreds of millions for a concession this size, we paid a small fraction of that. Comparably, the project at Guizhou would have cost up to $200 million to acquire in Alberta.”
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Can You Get Rich Investing? Yes, But Think Differently!

11 June 2010

Remember back in the 1990s when a lot of people either retired early or became wealthy? It was relatively simple. With stock prices going up, up, up, I knew a lot of people who simply invested part of their paychecks. They ended up with several hundred thousand dollars in profits from their constantly rising stocks.

I knew others who had already amassed several hundred thousand by the time the stock boom came along. They were millionaires by the time the 1990s ended.

Ah yes, those were the days. Today most people will tell you it’s a lot harder. Stocks don’t seem to do much any more. You have to invest in risky emerging countries to see much return. And that chance can evaporate overnight taking your money with it.

When the stock market won’t bring you any return, most people turn to real estate. But housing prices have peaked in most cities, meaning you can’t just buy a house and sit on it for several years to earn a fat nest egg.

So does that mean we have to give up on ever getting ahead and just learn to be satisfied living the “average” life our jobs can provide?

Not necessarily. These days you have to think differently to get ahead. For example, you’ve noticed how manufacturing and jobs are heading out of North America to foreign countries. That’s bad news for many workers, but it’s GREAT news for some segments of the Foreign Exchange Market.
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About Forex trading systems

23 April 2010

Forex trading systems are all about getting investments into the foreign markets. Foreign exchange markets are abbreviated to be called Forex. The worldwide trading of stocks in companies and in products happen over the Forex trading system. There are over a trillion dollars traded on the Forex market everyday. You can learn to chart and follow markets in the Forex trade world on your own, or you can rely on a broker as you would in the New York stock exchange. The Forex trading systems are similar in method, but each is a proven method of how to make money, how to learn about companies and how to follow what is going on with the money you are investing in the Forex trading markets.

You can live anywhere in the world and trade stocks and investments in the companies that are involved in the Forex markets. There are no limitations to the money you can make, or the money you can lose. The Forex markets can be tapped into online, over the phone or by contacting a broker in person. If you are interested in making money, you can do it on the Forex market, without having to have employees, or a broker to do this. You can get involved in learning about the investments in the Forex markets, and take on the responsibility for your own money, and making your own money. Many are starting their own businesses using their education and experience on the Forex market to make money.

The Forex market is one that is world wide, so there is sure to be something of interest to just about anyone that wants to expand their investments and expand their learning about money in the world wide markets. There are many experts in the Forex markets, and using the Forex trading system that you feel most comfortable with, you can be a Forex market expert as well.
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