I am chartist and a technical trader. I believe that the first line of analysis is to find patterns. Line drawing and straight line analysis is the standard. It has been and continues to be the base line tool. Moving averages and range bands are more recent developments and are observatory. Straight line charting has modeled and been used to define patterns and set targets for an awfully long time, and I believe that you can’t throw a pile of lumber of a cliff and have it land in the shape of a house. If it looks like a house, some one has manipulating the lumber.

I want to show you a study that is remarkable in that it shows obvious pattern trading but not in a single stock rather an entire index, in this case the NASDAQ. The slides here are chronologically sequential and can not be put together after the fact to make a point. They were annotated and posted as they happened and were charted in my Trader’s Talk Live training sessions. I have a group of students who subscribe to spend several hours per week charting and being trained to read and trade off chart patterns. What you will see is the break of a trend and the steps it takes to morph into a new trend.

Note that the lines were drawn before the pattern fully developed, demonstrating that the pattern was recognized and laid out before the price played into the lines. Now the pattern could have broken at any time. The lines did not dictate what the stock / Index could or could not do. Rather the lines showed the pattern and the targets that would be reached if the pattern continued. Each pivot point that was reached gave an opportunity to trade off the price reaction to a critical decision point.

Feb 23rd the index dropped to recent support rally with the up trend line just below. A lower top also was formed. We identified the support and noted that the long term line was just below.

Now, notice that the next day held support but reached down intraday to bounce off the trend line. As it moves up it stalls in line with lower tops forming a wedge pattern. Now it is a powerful pivot point as descending tops collide with a long term support trend line. A move to the upside is a break out the target will be 2155. A break in the support line gives weight to the developing down trend.

The next day drops right to the support line the break down signals the end of an uptrend that began in March 2003 and changed angles in November 2003. It moves on down to the bottom of the trading range of the new trend. This set up is another Obvious Bracket Trade. The Resistance line is defining the current trend and the Support and resistance lines show that there is attention being paid to the target points. The pile of lumber is taking the shape of a nice house.

As a double bounce / bottom pounds the support line, the upside target is the top of the range at about 2020. The downside targets would be sliding down the support line or dropping to the next hard price support of 1900, the last major rally point.

Two days later, the big gap and drop to 1900 signals the recognition of the support area. Returning to previous rally points is a common pattern. From here, the market sentiment can be accurately tested. The public is not the critical catalyst here. The big traders here will be testing to see if the public is finished selling off. If there is equilibrium, the public / market may be ready to follow a lead to the upside.

Try as you like, you will not find news to explain what happens the next three days. To quote an analyst on CNBC who speculated at length about what prompted the big move last Thursday,” I guess we don’t really know”.

Well, I will tell you this. The folks who lit that fire were careful to choose that day to test fire the rocket. All of the markets had reached support levels from a trend line / straight line analysis point of view (see the commentaries for the last three weeks).

In our Trader Talk Live sessions we chronicled this as it happened and had opportunities to trade the many stocks that were doing the exact same dance steps.

This morning we are right at the next target. We moved there in the first hour and stopped. It has been an hour so far and it is still there. Gee, do you think that maybe the traders already knew that 1995-2000 was the limit of the current pattern and that many traders would be very ready and willing to take profits here at an obvious pivot point? Now will they? I don’t know… I am not on the floor. But I don’t have to be there to see the targets. When they get there, there will be a struggle to test the waters. If th Read more…

The Time is Right: With the Fed lowering interest rates and setting a good tone to the markets along with earnings season coming up next month, there has never been a better time to learn to read price charts to pinpoint the best entries and exits for your trades.

When you know how to correctly read price and candle patterns you can identify the beginning of the next big wave and the most profitable entry for your trades. The price graph will also give you clues about when that wave is slowing down so you have time to tighten your stops and maximize your returns.

The markets today are providing us with great trading opportunities. The positive reaction to the interest rate news sent stocks skyrocketing, which made for some wonderful trades if you positioned in early. Many of those stocks, however, are due for a pullback. And what a perfect time to be trading because once you learn to identify the typical pullback, or retracement patterns, you can use those to enter trades before the next big run into earnings.

Here’s An Example:

A pattern that we usually see before a stock makes a run into earnings is a rectangle. A rectangle pattern is created when a stock moves up and down in a small range for a short period of time. This type of consolidation is more of a sideways move, during which time the stock doesn’t loose much of its value, but the options do become cheaper as the volatility decreases. An example of a recent rectangle is a trade we did in the two day Technically Speaking Workshop during which we bought calls on Freeport (FCX). This trade was done because the stock had just broken out of a rectangle pattern and, as you will learn in the Technically Speaking Workshop, we teach entering trades on the first or the second day of the move.

This trade was based on a contingency order at $92.50 on the Breakout Entry #1 seen below. This teaching method allows you the flexibility to trade as an end-of-day trader so you don’t have to be tied to your computer. The first entry was one that was triggered while unable to watch the markets. On the second day, there was an additional entry above $93 as the stock opened up outside of the rectangle. That is Breakout Entry #2, and is the pattern used to enter the trade in the Technically Speaking Workshop. As you can see below, FCX has rallied to a closing high of $108.67 – almost a fifteen dollar rally since entering the trade!

Another Example:

Another pattern that you might see as stocks pull back from the recent rally is a Flag pattern. This is similar to rectangle but one that is tipped on its side. With this type of pattern the stock pulls back in price and gives a better entry price into the trade. DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) formed just such a pattern this month as it retraced about ten dollars before heading to a new high. Below, you see the Flag pattern outlined in blue with the Breakout Entry #1 around $71. The second day provided another opportunity to enter the trade at around $75 before the stock rallied to a new all time high of $81.65 (at the time of this report). Depending on what day you would have entered the trade, this has been anywhere from a six to ten dollar upward move in the stock.
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There are few jobs in the world that don’t require training, yet many people believe that trading should require little to know training. Trading on the stock market gives you an unlimited potential for earning money, but all too often, people lose thousands and sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars simply because they didn’t have the knowledge to make effective trades. Instead of just taking a chance, why not learn how to trade the right way? Allow stock market professionals to teach you the strategies that will work for you.

BetterTrades.com is a method unlike many others. Most online sites that promise to teach you how to navigate the stock market are simply regurgitated information from older sites. They are “canned” presentations that deal with simple techniques you can pick up anywhere.

BetterTrades is something entirely different. Instead of being a website where you can get the same information that is posted everywhere, BetterTrades.com is a method that caters specifically to the individuals enrolled in their courses. The Trading Webshops, the key to this program, are live, interactive courses that you can take in the comfort of your own home. These Webshops will not only teach you the basics of trading, they will teach you how to trade in a way that is beneficial for you.
Read more…

There are few jobs in the world that don’t require training, yet many people believe that trading should require little to know training. Trading on the stock market gives you an unlimited potential for earning money, but all too often, people lose thousands and sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars simply because they didn’t have the knowledge to make effective trades. Instead of just taking a chance, why not learn how to trade the right way? Allow stock market professionals to teach you the strategies that will work for you.

BetterTrades.com is a method unlike many others. Most online sites that promise to teach you how to navigate the stock market are simply regurgitated information from older sites. They are “canned” presentations that deal with simple techniques you can pick up anywhere.

BetterTrades is something entirely different. Instead of being a website where you can get the same information that is posted everywhere, BetterTrades.com is a method that caters specifically to the individuals enrolled in their courses. The Trading Webshops, the key to this program, are live, interactive courses that you can take in the comfort of your own home. These Webshops will not only teach you the basics of trading, they will teach you how to trade in a way that is beneficial for you.
Read more…